An event research desk should optimize for correct, timestamped, reproducible evidence—not being first. Unconfirmed speed can create false confidence and financial harm. Start from the contract’s resolution wording, then build a source hierarchy for the exact facts that determine it.
Turn the Contract Into Verification Questions
Extract:
- actor and action;
- required threshold or condition;
- deadline/timezone;
- named resolution source;
- publication versus occurrence distinction;
- exceptions, postponements, revisions, and dispute process.
Convert each into a yes/no evidence question. For example, “Did agency X publish the final signed decision before time Y?” is clearer than “Did social media say the policy passed?”
Build a Source Hierarchy
Prefer the named resolution source, original law/order/result, official agency publication, first-party statement, and primary dataset. Use reputable reporting to discover and contextualize, but trace decisive claims back to the original record where possible.
For every item store publisher, author/office, URL/document ID, publication and event time, retrieval time, timezone, version, quoted claim/paraphrase, scope, and confidence. Preserve corrections and updates rather than overwriting.
A source is not reliable for every topic. A ministry may be authoritative for its issued notification but not for an unrelated market forecast. Separate source authenticity, proximity to the fact, track record, independence, and timeliness.
Verify Before Summarizing
Use a two-source rule only as a heuristic. Ten copied articles can trace to one unverified post. Check whether sources are independent and whether the primary document supports the headline. Confirm names, dates, units, status words such as draft/final, and whether the document applies to the relevant geography.
For images/video, identify original uploader, time/place evidence, and official confirmation; do not use generative tools to “enhance” evidence. Record uncertainty rather than filling gaps.
Worked Example
A market concerns whether a regulator will approve a filing by a deadline. A breaking-news account says approval happened. The official docket shows only that staff accepted an amended submission; final approval is absent. The desk records the social claim as unverified and does not change its paper forecast until the named resolution source updates.
Later reporting may be correct about eventual approval, but the earlier contract question was date- and status-specific.
Operational Board
Use states: discovered, primary source located, independently checked, relevant to resolution, superseded/corrected, or unresolved. Assign reviewer and next check. A watchlist item without a verification owner becomes rumor storage.
Do not scrape sites against terms, bypass paywalls/access controls, or collect personal data. Use official APIs/RSS/publications and responsible intervals.
🇵🇰 Pakistan Angle
For Pakistan-related events, use the responsible body—such as ECP, SBP, PBS, PVARA, SECP, courts, ministries, or provincial agencies—depending on the claim. Record whether a document is a press release, notification, gazette, draft, consultation, or final rule; these are not interchangeable.
Check Urdu and English versions for parity with a fluent reviewer. Use PKT and UTC explicitly. Never let a WhatsApp forward or television ticker become the sole decisive source.
Hands-On Exercise
Choose one public market and build a 12-row source desk. Extract five verification questions, identify the named resolution source, trace three secondary claims to primary records, mark independence, and create update/correction history. Finish with “confirmed,” “not confirmed,” or “ambiguous”—not a trade action.
Completion Rubric
- Complete: contract conditions map to primary evidence with timestamps, versions, independence, corrections, and unresolved gaps.
- Needs revision: sources are relevant but copied reporting or status distinctions remain unclear.
- Not complete: speed, social posts, or AI summaries replace source verification.
Sources
- Polymarket official resolution subgraph
- Polymarket official market-data guidance
- CFTC prediction-markets education
- Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority
Key takeaway: Research the exact resolution condition through versioned primary evidence; being confidently early with the wrong status is failure.